① International oil prices have fallen 18% from their early-March high, and U.S. gasoline prices have followed suit. But Trump claims he has asked the Department of Justice to investigate price gouging by oil companies.
② There are signs that the Strait of Hormuz is resuming traffic, but returning to normal navigation will still take time.
③ Positive signals from U.S.-Iran talks have boosted optimism about oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but vessel traffic remains low, and shipowners and operators remain cautious about the region.
June 24 — International oil prices have fallen 18% from their early-March high, and U.S. gasoline prices have begun to decline as a result. According to GasBuddy data, as of Monday, the average price of regular gasoline in the United States fell by $0.141 last week to $3.85 per gallon.
But U.S. President Donald Trump remains dissatisfied. On Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that major oil companies have not significantly lowered gasoline prices even though the oil they pay for has plunged, and consumers are being “ripped off.” He has directed the Department of Justice to launch an immediate investigation, and gasoline prices had better come down quickly.
This may be another move by Trump to build momentum for this year’s U.S. midterm elections. On Tuesday, Trump spoke in a key swing district in Pennsylvania, trying to reassure voters. He claimed that the cost of living is falling and that oil prices will plummet.
Karen Young, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, called Trump’s statement “political theater” and noted that U.S. gasoline prices are not actually priced so simply.
She emphasized that gasoline prices at U.S. pumps include state and local taxes, so the decline in gasoline prices actually depends on refiners. It takes several weeks for crude oil prices to fall, then refiners cut prices, and only finally does the consumer end truly react.
Reality
Aditi Rasquinha, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Greater China, said supply chain pressure has increased due to longer transit times for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to air freight capacity. As the strait opens, many problems may ease, but it will still take some time for supply chains to return to normal.
ING also noted that positive signals from U.S.-Iran talks have boosted optimism about oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, although vessel traffic has increased in recent days, it remains far below pre-war levels.
Maritime intelligence company Windward said that on June 22, a total of 25 transit vessels visible via automatic identification systems were recorded in the Strait of Hormuz, including liquefied natural gas carriers linked to France and Qatar.
However, there are indications that shippers are still awaiting full approval. Indian Oil is reportedly unable to charter three tankers to load crude oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf and transport these cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, as many shipowners and operators remain highly cautious about dispatching vessels to the region.
