Bitcoin Low Points Have Emerged, Says Standard Chartered Analyst Kendrick

Standard Chartered analyst Kendrick believes that the low point for Bitcoin has already emerged.
On-chain data indicates that the price is approaching the ‘realized price’, with over half of positions currently at a loss, historically signaling a bottom.

However, net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $5.8 billion in a single month, with institutional demand remaining persistently weak.

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Analysts warn that this currently only qualifies as a ‘valuation bottom candidate’ rather than a confirmed cyclical low, with significant market divergence between bulls and bears.

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Bitcoin has rebounded from below $60,000, reigniting market speculation that ‘the bottom has been reached’.

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Bulls and bears are fiercely debating ETF capital outflows, on-chain data, and macroeconomic catalysts, but analysts caution that the market has yet to experience the extreme panic selling typically seen in the final stages of past bear markets.

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After hitting a low of $59,100 last week, Bitcoin rebounded this week, briefly breaking above $64,000 on Friday before retreating, with little change from Thursday’s New York close, and has accumulated a gain of over 4.6% as of press time.

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Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated unequivocally in a client report:

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‘I believe the low point for crypto asset prices in this cycle has already emerged.’

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He cited the easing of geopolitical tensions and the completion of the SpaceX IPO as two potential catalysts.

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However, the market is far from showing signs of a full recovery.

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Data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $5.8 billion over the past month, with institutional demand remaining persistently weak.

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Researchers at CryptoQuant noted that the current price level ‘should be interpreted as a valuation bottom candidate, rather than a confirmed cyclical low.’

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The rebound has triggered a bottoming debate, with geopolitical factors and the IPO serving as arguments for the bullish side.

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Bitcoin fell to a low of $59,100 last week before rebounding to its current level of around $63,600.

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This decline has spread pessimism across the market and prompted analysts to intensively search for technical signals historically associated with market bottoms.

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In a report to clients, Kendrick wrote that the easing of geopolitical tensions could reduce upward pressure on oil prices and US Treasury yields.

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At the same time, the completion of the SpaceX IPO may mark the end of a recent wave of concentrated ETF selling.

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He believes that some ETF holders liquidated Bitcoin positions in advance to participate in the SpaceX issuance, objectively accelerating capital outflows and resulting in one of the most severe net outflow episodes since these ETFs were launched.

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Multiple on-chain indicators are approaching critical thresholds seen at historical bear market lows, providing support for the bullish argument.
According to CryptoQuant data, following the recent decline, Bitcoin’s price is now only about 9% above its ‘realized price’ (the average cost of all coins last moved on-chain).

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Historically, this indicator tends to approach the realized price near major bear market lows, and the current level has entered a historically sensitive zone.

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Vetle Lunde highlights another metric: currently, more than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in a state of loss, meaning holders’ purchase costs exceed the current market price.

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This phenomenon has repeatedly appeared near previous market bottoms, with the logic being that the group of investors still in profit and facing selling pressure has significantly narrowed.

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However, Lunde cautiously notes that before establishing a sustained recovery, Bitcoin could still experience a ‘final drop’.

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Persistent ETF Outflows: Institutional Demand Becomes the Biggest Concern

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Yet, compared to typical deep crypto market crashes, the scale of this sell-off remains insufficient.

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According to CryptoQuant data, the number of Bitcoins on which investors realized losses over the past 30 days was approximately 187,000. While substantial, this figure is far below the sell-off scale following the FTX collapse in late 2022, and even lower than a concentrated selling wave earlier this year.

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Per Bloomberg-compiled data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of approximately $5.8 billion over the past month.

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CryptoQuant notes that U.S. institutional demand has not only stalled but has turned into net selling at a pace rarely seen historically.

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This phenomenon has sparked sharply divergent interpretations between bulls and bears.

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Bears argue that persistent capital outflows indicate deteriorating demand, making it difficult for prices to find effective support.

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Bulls, however, contend that such outflow scale is a classic characteristic of market cleansing, which historically has often coincided with the formation of market bottoms.

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The conclusion from CryptoQuant researchers is quite representative:

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‘The current price level should be considered a candidate for a valuation bottom, rather than a confirmed cyclical bottom.’

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This wording captures the core disagreement in the current market—technical signals are accumulating, but weak demand and persistent ETF outflows make any definitive judgment highly risky.

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